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One fourth of the exporting companies of Colombia have their destinations in Venezuela, market that concentrates 34% of their sales. Also the sectors that display the greatest sensitivity towards the situation with the neighboring country are vehicles, food and manufacture. This is the conclusion of a study performed by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Tourism, which evaluates the impact that the crisis between the two countries would have on the commercial exchange between them. The report established that 39% of the companies present a dependency on the Venezuelan market of over 50%. According to the analysis, the products with the greatest risk are foods, particularly meats and sweets, since these are the items that present the greatest volumes of commercialization and for which the income from exports depend on hundred percent on Venezuela. Likewise, there is sensitivity in manufactures such as textiles, dressmaking, leather, footwear and automobiles, since the neighboring country is the destination of at least 90% of their sales abroad. Assemblers, the most harmed Damages begin to become apparent in the sector of vehicles, since the assemblers already announced the elimination of working positions and modifications to their investment projects. In this situation, the government as well as the private sector agrees on stating that the restriction on the importation of vehicles established by Venezuela is not a discriminatory measure against Colombia, but that it was a situation that had been foreseen for a long time, since it is the result of a policy of the neighboring country in order to promote endogenous development. Key market for textiles As to the companies, the analysis divides the firms according to the volume of exports. In this sense, the 914 companies that sell to foreign countries more than 500 thousand dollars each, they concentrate 96% of the exports to Venezuela, and the remaining 4% is in the hands of 1.608 smaller firms. Both types of companies belong mostly to the sectors of manufacture and clothing. The big ones address close to 34% of their sales as an average to the neighboring country, as compared to 51% of the companies with smaller volumes. Sales will grow only 20% Under the uncertainty due to the crisis with Venezuela, in the most optimistic panorama a deceleration in the growth of the exports to the country is anticipated, so that the dynamics will pass from 87% in 2007 to 20% in 2008. In the meanwhile, the more pessimistic calculations estimate that if there is a total restriction in the bilateral trade, sales to the neighboring country would drop by 34%. However, said the Minister of Trade, Industry and Tourism, Luis Guillermo Plata, this is very unlikely due to the mutual dependence of the two markets, the same as the possibility of blocking the entry of Colombian industrial products, that is to say, 80% of the transactions. The third scenario contemplated is that the neighboring country eliminates the customs duty preferences with which the Colombian articles are favored in the framework of the Community of Andes Nations, from which Venezuela retired two years ago. In this case a decrease of 30% is expected in the exports and that the traders will be forced to pay duties between 10% and 15%. The final scenario, which is what is taking place, is that Venezuela begins to enforce a gradual decrease in the imports through mechanisms such as more encumbering proceedings for obtaining foreign currency and decrees that establish quotas for the commercialization of certain products, as occurred with vehicles. The amount Colombian exports to Venezuela would drop by 34% in the most unfavorable scenario. The data The commercial exchange between Venezuela and Colombia amounted to 6.5 billion dollars, according to the Colombo-Venezuelan Chamber of Commerce. Projection The projected growth of the Venezuelan GIP for this year is of 6.1%, as compared to 8.4% in 2007. Colprensa |
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